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“The fraudster’s greatest liability,” explains Louis J. Freeh, “is the absolute certainty that the fraud is too clever to be detected.” Following the news of a DraftKings Sportsbook hack which is alleged to have originated elsewhere online where users login information was later compromised by bad faith actors, new emphasis has been placed on Glory MMA coach James Krause and his betting syndicate operation in light of an investigative probe that threatens to shake the pantheon of mixed martial arts down to its very foundation.
“This is my most exposed fight of the card in terms of numbers of bets,” explains Brady Dukes in his November 4, 2022 DFS BY THE NUMBERS YouTube video titled, “UFC Vegas 64 Betting Breakdown.”
“So we have Shayilan Nuerdanbieke going against Darrek Minner. So, I’ll talk about the bets I have,” explains Dukes. “The first one, first and foremost, I think the best bet on this fight is that under two and half rounds, even if that fight doesn’t go to a decision. So, I put 0.75 on that. On that under two and a half rounds. And I got that at -125.
“And the reason I did that,” explains Dukes, “instead of the fight doesn’t go, is because at the time they had the fight doesn’t go to a decision on BET online, (it) was like -230. So, the fight doesn’t go was like -230 and then the under was only like -125. So, I took the -125.
“Now money (has) actually been pouring in on the fight goes to a decision. And now you can get the fight doesn’t go to a decision on some books that like, I see, -140. So, if you can get that -140, I see a -150 on FanDuel. I would take that. But yeah, I’m on the under two and a half rounds.
“You know both of these guys are kill or be killed. Darrick Minner especially,” reasons Dukes. “Darrick Minner is at like an 89% finish rate.
“He’s been finished eleven times, eight by submission. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is a finisher in his own right, or at least outside the UFC. Inside the UFC, we’ll talk about it. Not really a finisher, but outside the UFC a ton of finishes. Nuerdanbieke has been finished in eight out of ten losses - that’s 80%. I think a finish here is pretty likely. So, that’s my first bet,” explains Dukes. “0.75 units on the under two and a half rounds at -125. That line is still there.
“Next,” continues Dukes. “I have the Darrick Minner scorecards equals no action. The finish only for Darrick Minner, half a unit. That’s actually +160 on FanDuel Sportsbook and the reason being is, you know, this one I think Darrick Minner has a higher chance to finish this fight than Shayilan. The reason being, you know, Shayilan has not looked to finish anybody in the UFC thus far. Including, one, you know, Sean Soriano, (who) has been finished a ton by sub. He has zero submission attempts in the UFC.
“He’s just looking to lay and pray. I mean, he says he’s going to go out there and knock out Minner. I mean good luck (with that), because Shayilan’s striking is not good at all.
“I guess he could, like, TKO him if Minner is tired (or something).
“But, you know, Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is just content to go out there and win minutes,” argues Dukes. “And my reasoning is, if he’s taking down Darrick Minner, Darrick Minner is going to get a ton of opportunities to get that submission. I see Nuerdanbieke submitting a ton of times (too), six times to be exact. And it’s concerning, because he’s getting submitted by, you know, some of the most questionable competition that we see on the Chinese regional scene.
“I mean, I saw him get submitted by an 0-1 guy,” Dukes explains. “An 0-1 guy! Whereas Darrick Minner, the guy has like 22, 23 submissions on his record. Including submission wins against, you know, Terrance McKinney, guys like that. So, I think Darrick Minner is very live for a finish here.”
With a point of reference established in understanding exactly how bettors were initially sizing up the UFC Vegas 64 betting lines, we can now move forward in putting the events which would later go on to transpire into their proper context and place.
“Moments after winning his fight at UFC Vegas 65, Miles Johns, who fights out of Glory MMA, told UFC commentator Michael Bisping, “My coach (James Krause), last night at the dinner table got pulled and they said the UFC was suspending him so he couldn’t be here in my corner,” writes author Trent Reinsmith in his November 20, 2022 BloodyElbow.com article titled, “Report: Betting probe behind coach James Krause being pulled from UFC Vegas 65.”
“Krause has not been formally suspended,” explains Reinsmith. “But he was pulled from the event because of the ongoing investigation into betting irregularities surrounding the November 5 bout between the Krause-coached Darrick Minner and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke.”
According to the report, “In the hours leading up to that fight, which took place on the UFC Vegas 64 card at the UFC Apex, Nuerdanbieke moved from a -220 favorite to -420. U.S. Integrity, a company that investigates betting irregularities, caught the line movement and notified sportsbooks.”
“What’s important is that there could have been some insider trading that was involved here,” writes Erich Richter in his November 8, 2022 NYPost.com article titled, “Suspicious betting on UFC fight that ended in first round sparks probe.”
“The aforementioned Krause, Minner’s coach,” explains Richter, “does run a betting syndicate operation called the 1% club, where bettors pay him for his UFC betting advice. Whether that is actually insider trading is unknown.”
Interestingly, as we continue reading further down into the report we go on discover that unbeknownst to a majority of bettors, Darrick Minner was actually coming into the fight injured. “Krause did confirm that this was a preexisting injury for Minner. ‘He’s good man. Heartbroken obviously because he’s probably getting cut now,’ the coach wrote. ‘His knee was jacked going into the fight but gotta pay the bills. Is what it is I suppose.’”
With the NY Post suggesting insider trading of some kind may have been involved here, it’s theorized that Minner’s knee injury was leaked to members of Krause’s 1% club in the hours leading up to the fight, which in turn was ultimately responsible for the suspicious line movement detected by U.S. Integrity. Not long afterwards, we would go on to discover that Krause was subsequently pulled from the UFC Vegas 65 event pending the outcome of an investigative probe. If any of this is starting to sound familiar, that may be because we've heard similar stories before.
“Las Vegas bookmakers had just alerted authorities to a point-shaving scandal at Arizona State University when then-Sun Devils basketball coach Bill Frieder walked into The Mirage to bet on horse racing,” explains author Todd Dewey in his September 8, 2017 Las Vegas Review-Journal article titled, “Las Vegas bookmakers know a fix when they see one.”
“Jimmy Vaccaro,” writes Dewey, “the then-Mirage Resorts sportsbook director said seeing Frieder, known as a sharp gambler, in his book almost gave him a heart attack.
“I went out there,” Vaccaro later went on to explain, “and said, ‘Bill, what are you doing?’ He looked at me like he was clueless and said, ‘Jimmy, I’m betting horses.’
“I said, ‘They think your game was fixed yesterday.’ He gave me a puzzled look and said, ‘But we won by 18 points.’ I asked him nicely. I said, ‘Bill, you’re a good guy, but go play your horses somewhere else.’
“Frieder, who couldn’t be reached for comment, wasn’t involved in the 1994 scheme to fix four games, a scheme that ultimately cost him his job,” explains Dewey. “Nor was he aware that Vaccaro had notified the Nevada Gaming Control Board the previous day, March 5, about suspicious betting activity in Arizona State’s game against Washington.
“The point-shaving scandal, was one of several uncovered over the years with the help of Las Vegas bookmakers, who are on the same side as the NCAA and major pro sports leagues when it comes to wanting to protect the integrity of the games.”
In a story that increasingly rivals some of the most notorious scandals in sports history; the parallels between the Arizona State University point shaving controversy and those that would later go on to transpire at UFC Vegas 64 are hard to ignore.
James Krause, like former Arizona State University coach Bill Frieder, is a known sharp bettor whose fighter, Darrick Minner, came into the fight with a preexisting medical condition which all but guaranteed his defeat as the bets continued to pour in on the potentiality of a Minner upset victory. In what are circumstances not unlike those of college basketball players purposely missing shots in order to cover the spread; Minner’s knee injury is speculated to have been leaked to members of Krause’s online syndicate group in an alleged insider trading scheme that saw some sportsbooks remove the fight from their board's altogether. Following the detection of a suspicious line movement by the watchdog group U.S. Integrity, an investigative probe was launched which increasingly lends credibility to the notion that, “the fraudster’s greatest liability is the absolute certainty that the fraud is too clever to be detected.”